Hightower Webinar Series: Stephanie Link of CNBC on the Markets, Real Estate and Unemployment

As a way to connect and share across the Hightower community in this time of social isolation, Hightower has been hosting regular webinars with movers and shakers in the finance industry.

Our most recent session was an hour-long conversation with Stephanie Link, a CNBC contributor and former head of global equities research at Nuveen. During the webinar, moderated by Hightower’s Matthias Kuhlmey, Link shared her views on unemployment, the upcoming election, opportunities in the real estate sector, and her favorite places to get the news.

Here are some key excerpts from the conversation, edited for clarity:

Kuhlmey: We’re seeing a lot of industry stress due to COVID. Can we look at the big picture here? What happens to the world if companies fall? What is the global outlook, and how does the United States fit in?

Link: Global growth is very slow. We don’t have any inflation, and in fact we are probably fighting some deflation. Profits are going to be down, but the good news is the liquidity – it’s very significant. Companies are parking their money at the bank because they’ve just broken down their credit lines. There are a lot of policies that are positive for risk assets and economic growth.

As the economy reopens, the economic data is bound to get better. It may not be great, and it may not bounce back immediately, but you’ll see recovery. The economy will eventually get better and, in fact, is already showing signs of getting better. The progress of vaccines and the availability of tests; that’s going to lead to more confidence in the market, which is what you need.

Kuhlmey: How should we think about this massive stimulus, globally? Or in terms of inflation?

Link: I don’t think we’ll see it materially increase in the near term. In 2022, we might have to worry, but again, right now we’re fighting deflation. I don’t think you have to worry about inflation right now.

Kuhlmey: How do you view share repurchases today?

Link: I think if companies can afford it and have strong balance sheets, dominant market share and good business models, they should by all means be buying back stocks and increasing and offering dividends. But I think industries that are struggling, shouldn’t.

Airlines are so incredibly dependent on the macro, and their balance sheets aren’t strong or well covered, but I don’t have any problem with a large tech company buying back stock when they have $100 billion to spend.

Kuhlmey: What are your thoughts on real estate? Commercial retail and industrial housing?

Link: I worry a lot about retail and commercial. I don’t think we are going to be able to get back to where we were. I do think housing is very attractive, and low interest rates are a very good thing for housing. Rates are gradually going to go up, but not right away. Mortgage applications are up 33%, and when you look at the consumer confidence numbers, those held up a lot better than people were fearing. Millennials are going to be very powerful with housing – it’s all about supply and demand. So, in real estate, housing is the area I would focus on.

Kuhlmey: What was the fattest pitch in your career that you didn’t swing at?

Link: Netflix.

Kuhlmey: What is your opinion on the current unemployment situation and its potential effect on economic recovery?

Link: It’s devastating. I don’t think we’re going to recover 100%, but all of the policy put in place will help. Companies will use this as a reason to fine-tune around the edges, and I do think we’re going to come out of this. But this all comes back to whether the reopening is successful. You need to have people going into the stores and malls to get back to where we were.

Kuhlmey: What are some good news sources to read that go beyond Wall Street?

Link: I read Barron’s and [The Wall Street] Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Bloomberg. I also really like to listen to company earning calls – where they conference everyone in and let the press listen – you can learn so much! I actually print out those presentations and study them. Sell-side research has declined, but every analyst is good for a different thing. Make an effort to read stuff from people you both agree AND disagree with.

To learn more about how Hightower is helping its advisors stay connected during the pandemic, email us at advisorsuccess@hightoweradvisors.com.

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