31 All-Time Highs in 2024 

1.Private Sector Expansion. The preliminary U.S. composite PMI index for June hit a 26-month high at 54.6. The index acts as a leading indicator for the U.S. economy, tracking business activity across the manufacturing and services sectors. Readings above 50 indicate expansionary activities and point toward future growth. Services posted a preliminary reading of 55.1 and manufacturing showed 51.7, both above consensus estimates and in expansionary territory. These readings indicate what could be a strong end to the second quarter, one in which the Atlanta Fed is projecting 3% annualized GDP growth.¹ 

Chart 1: Preliminary June PMI Index Shows Expansion for Services and Manufacturing² 

2. Signs of Relief in Housing. 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell for the third consecutive week last week, ending at 6.87%, the lowest level since early April.³ The previous week provided one of the best housing data points we have seen in some time: weekly mortgage applications rose 15.6% w/w as interest rates fell 5 bps. Interest rates are likely to decline over the next 12 months, with the Fed expecting its policy rate to be more than 100 bps lower by the end of 2025. Housing stands to benefit as a result of lower rates.

As we have previously highlighted, the U.S. is 5 million homes short, builders have underproduced for 14 years and over 5 million millennials are looking to become first-time home buyers. D.R. Horton (DHI) reported in its Q2 earnings release that 57% of its sales in the quarter were first-time buyers. Over 50% of homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, so any further decline in rates will incentivize new buyers to enter the market, and those looking to move will be more likely to do so amid lower rates. Housing remains one of our top themes in 2024. 

Chart 2: As Mortgage Rates Decline, Weekly Mortgage Applications Are Trending Higher⁴

3. Record Tech Inflows. In a week when Nvidia (NVDA) was briefly the largest company in the world at $3.3 trillion, the technology sector saw record inflows. Tech funds recorded a weekly-record inflow of $8.7 billion, global stock funds had its largest weekly inflow since March at $25.6 billion and U.S. equities hit nine consecutive weeks of positive inflows. U.S. growth funds also had a record week, bringing in $11.9 billion.⁵ Tech has been the best performing sector year-to-date, up 18.7% – with communication services as the only other sector outperforming the broader market. 

Chart 3: Technology and Communication Are the Only Outperforming Sectors Year-to-Date⁶  

4. Fixed Income. Treasury yields rose last week on mixed data. Tuesday had a weaker-than-expected May retail sales print, while Friday came with stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMIs. Yields ended the week 3-5 bps higher across the curve. This week we receive the final 1Q GDP and May PCE deflator readings. High yields outperformed with 8 bps of tightening w/w to 321 bps, back toward early-June levels. Muni yields were unchanged for the week.  

5. The Week Ahead. 

Earnings – Tuesday: CCL, FDX; Wednesday: GIS, MU, PAYX; Thursday: MKC, NKE, WBA. 

Economics – Monday: Dallas Fed Index; Tuesday: FHFA Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index; Wednesday: Building Permits, New Home Sales; Thursday: Durable Orders, Final Q1 GDP, Pending Home Sales; Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditure, Michigan Sentiment. 

Stephanie Link’s TV Schedule:

Return for Selected Indices⁷ 

Disclosure 

Investment Solutions is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC, as a member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is neither indicative nor a guarantee of future results. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data or other information referenced herein is from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other data or information contained in this presentation is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Investment Solutions and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates make no representations or warranties express or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or for statements or errors or omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information. Investment Solutions and Hightower Advisors, LLC assume no liability for any action made or taken in reliance on or relating in any way to this information. The information is provided as of the date referenced in the document. Such data and other information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s) and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.