Well-th Blog

Presidential Debate Recap & Three Things to Watch

By Hightower Advisors / October 14, 2020

SEPTEMBER 30, 2020
The first presidential debate came with less policy discourse than what viewers were hoping for. In a CBS/YouGov instant poll, only 17% of respondents felt “informed” by the debate (compared to 69% “annoyed” or 31% “entertained”). We will outline the key policy points that were discussed and the market implications to consider.

Three Things to Watch

1. S&P 500 on September 30th. One day is a small sample size, but any significant move in the market would be notable. We would correlate a move higher to favor Trump and a move lower to favor Biden.
2. Directional movement of betting odds. In the initial 12-hours following the debate, there has been a 1-2% move towards Biden and away from Trump.
3. Polling shift to Biden. In the last six presidential races featuring an incumbent President, the challenger party (in this instance, Joe Biden) has gained an average of 2.1% in the polls following the first debate. Polling matters the most in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

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Disclosures
OCIO at Hightower Advisors is a team of investment professionals registered with Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, & Hightower Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor with the SEC. All securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC and advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk and there is no guarantee that the investment process described herein will be profitable. Investors may lose all of their investments. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. In preparing these materials, we have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public and internal sources; as such, neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Hightower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates.

1. Source: CBS, YouGov, September 30, 2020.
2. Source: Financial Times, “Trump team vs the scientists: the battle over Covid ahead of election”, September 17, 2020.
3. Source: Supremecourt.gov, California, et al., Petitioners v. Texas, et al.
4. Source: Whitehouse.gov, “Executive Order on Lowering Drug Prices by Putting America First”, September 13, 2020.
5. Source: joebiden.com/climate-plan
6. Source: The Wall Street Journal, “BP Bets Future on Green Energy, but Investors Remain Wary”, September 29, 2020.
7. Source: Bloomberg.

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