IBM Quantum Day Roadmap and Scalability

IBM’s Strategic Positioning in the Quantum Market

IBM’s most recent investor event at its research headquarters highlighted the company’s determination to remain a central player in the emerging quantum computing landscape. This investment day furthered the enthusiasm we expressed for quantum computing in an earlier Special Edition Market Note, reinforcing our conviction that it represents one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in technology. The event outlined the company’s market opportunity, multi-year roadmap, and examples of real-world progress. IBM currently leads the industry based on the number of deployed quantum systems and the scale of its partner and user ecosystems. Management believes its existing momentum positions the company to capture a meaningful share of a global quantum market, aiming to capture 20% of the global quantum market they estimate could reach nearly $100 billion by 2035.^[1]

IBM’s Quantum Enterprise Value Chart:^[2]

IBM’s Quantum Roadmap

IBM presented a structured roadmap that outlines the steps required to take quantum computing from today’s experimental phase into systems that can solve relevant problems. The company expects a quantum machine to outperform the best classical supercomputers on specific workloads by 2026. By 2028, IBM expects to demonstrate principles of an error-corrected quantum computer, which is critical because current quantum computers are sensitive to environmental noise, making current operations unreliable. In 2029, IBM plans to introduce Starling, its first fault-tolerant quantum computer. Fault tolerance ensures that even if part of the system malfunctions or produces errors, the overall machine continues to compute correctly.

IBM also clarified scale in simple terms. Quantum computers operate with qubits, a more efficient version of binary code that can perform calculations simultaneously. For a more in-depth explanation of how Quantum computers work, IBM has an excellent article here. Today’s systems currently operate around 150 logical qubits, which are capable of about 5,000 instructions. By 2029, Starling is expected to reach roughly 200 logical qubits and be capable of about 100 million possible instructions. Long term, IBM’s Blue Jay system, expected beyond 2033, aims to scale toward 2,000 logical qubits and be capable of over one billion instructions.^[3] This roadmap reinforces that IBM is approaching quantum development through measurable milestones while steadily expanding system reliability and computational depth.

Combining Quantum and Classic Computer Infrastructure

IBM expects the future of computing to combine classical systems such as GPUs with quantum processing units. This is done through superconducting qubit technology, which uses ultra-cold superconducting circuits to implement quantum computer principles into existing semiconductor architecture. This allows each aspect of classical and quantum computers to handle workloads best suited to their strengths and cost benefits. IBM highlighted recent demonstrations where classical computing was enhanced with this technology, with a project being reduced from 8 hours to roughly 1.5 hours, saving on computational costs.^[4] In IBM’s view, superconducting qubits strike the right balance between performance and manufacturability today while still allowing for hybrid workflows that blend quantum and classical power.

Quantum as a Service: A Cloud-First Model

IBM emphasized that the delivery model for quantum computing will remain cloud-centric in the near term. The company operates managed quantum data centers, enabling users to access the latest hardware generations without the need to host machines directly. While a limited number of systems are deployed on customer premises, the cloud remains the primary channel for accessing IBM’s most advanced capabilities. Pricing follows a tiered, usage-based framework: free access is available for limited monthly runtime, while paid options scale from $48 per minute for premium reserved capacity to $96 per minute on a pay-as-you-go basis. For national and research institutions, IBM also offers fully on-premises systems leased over four years with upgrade provisions. Management has indicated that cumulative bookings exceed $1 billion,^[5] though recognized revenue remains modest, and noted that pricing may evolve as systems transition from beta to general availability

Building Capacity Through Partnerships and Ecosystem Development

IBM continues to invest heavily in expanding its quantum ecosystem, recognizing that platform strength will increasingly depend on the partners, developers, and researchers building on top of it. IBM counts more than 50 industry members, over 65 commercial partnerships and startups, and more than 170 academic and research institutions within its network.^[6] Management also acknowledged the heightened attention around national-level interest in quantum development, pointing out that the U.S. government appears increasingly aware of the strategic importance of maintaining leadership.  The company sees ecosystem velocity as a competitive advantage, especially in emerging technologies where leadership can shift abruptly. IBM’s grounding in customer use cases and its deliberate roadmap help maintain stability and highlight opportunities in the field.

Stephanie Link’s TV Schedule:

Sources:

^[1] JP Morgan, as of November 2025

^[2] Morgan Stanley: Analyst Report, as of November 2025

^[3] IBM: Quantum Day, as of November 2025

^[4] IBM: Quantum Day, as of November 2025

^[5] IBM: Quantum Day, as of November 2025

^[6] IBM: Quantum Day, as of November 2025

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