Earnings Momentum and AI Tailwinds Anchor Markets

1. Earnings Strength Driving Market Resilience Market performance was relatively subdued last week, with equities finishing largely flat as investors continue to digest geopolitical developments, inflation concerns, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. Despite this pause, the broader trend since the March lows remains constructive. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have rebounded 13.02%, 19.47%, and 8.97%, respectively,¹ reflecting improving sentiment and underlying support from fundamentals.

Beneath the surface, leadership dynamics remain notable. Growth has led the recent rebound, with the Russell 1000 Growth Index up 16.61% compared to an 8.75% gain for the Russell 1000 Value Index.² However, on a year-to-date basis, value continues to outperform growth by roughly 700 basis points.

Importantly, the primary driver behind the market’s resilience has been stronger-than-expected earnings. Early results have been encouraging, with earnings growth running approximately 23% alongside 10% revenue growth, even with only about 27% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far.³ This positive earnings momentum has helped offset macro headwinds and continues to provide a fundamental foundation for equities.

2. AI Infrastructure Driving Broad-Based Sector Growth A significant portion of the market’s earnings strength is being driven by three key sectors: semiconductors, energy, and industrials. While these areas may appear distinct, they are increasingly connected through a common set of structural themes, the buildout of AI infrastructure, data centers, grid expansion, and power demand. This AI food chain is extending well beyond traditional technology companies and is now influencing a wide range of industries.

Recent corporate commentary reinforces this trend. Texas Instruments and Intel both highlighted improving trends within their industrial segments, signaling that demand tied to AI-related infrastructure is beginning to flow through to broader end markets. At the same time, the emergence of edge computing, focused on automation and robotics, is gaining traction as a long-term growth driver. The implications are significant, with some estimates pointing to as many as one billion humanoid robots in use globally by 2050,⁴ underscoring the scale of potential demand.

The ripple effects are also evident in transportation and infrastructure. Union Pacific noted that the physical movement of goods tied to data center and grid development continues to support freight demand, helping push transportation activity toward cycle highs. Meanwhile, Quanta Services recently expanded its total addressable market outlook to $2.4 trillion by 2030 from $940 billion,⁵ reflecting the growing need for large-scale energy and grid investment. Lastly, Marvell Technology highlighted strong growth in optical solutions as an alternative to copper in data center and grid buildouts, alongside doubling their revenue within their custom ASICs business.⁶

3. Earnings and Inflation Data Set the Near-Term Market Tone This week represents a critical juncture for markets, with five of the Magnificent 7 reporting, collectively accounting for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Results and forward commentary from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Apple will be central in shaping both sentiment and direction. A key focus will be capital expenditures to see if there are any changes.

Cloud growth will be another critical area of scrutiny following last quarter’s disappointment, when a lack of acceleration weighed on investor sentiment. In particular, Amazon will be closely watched after significantly expanding capacity; failure to deliver mid-20% growth could be viewed negatively. At the same time, investors will be focused on advertising trends from Alphabet and Meta, where stability or reacceleration would help reinforce broader digital demand.

Alongside earnings, the macro backdrop will also come into focus with the release of key inflation indicators, including the Employment Cost Index and the core PCE deflator. These data points will provide important insight into wage pressures, productivity trends, and the broader inflation trajectory, all of which remain central to Federal Reserve policy expectations. Together, this week’s combination of earnings and economic data is likely to play a decisive role in setting the near-term tone for markets.

4. Fixed Income U.S. Treasury yields advanced across the curve last week as geopolitical tensions involving Iran persisted. By Friday’s close, the 2, 10, and 30-year yields were higher by 7, 5, and 2 basis points, respectively.⁷ The week ahead features a heavy macroeconomic calendar, including the PCE inflation report, ISM Manufacturing data, and the FOMC policy decision. Markets continue to anticipate another hold at this week’s meeting, with investors focused on updated guidance and any shifts in the Committee’s assessment of inflation and growth conditions.

Credit markets weakened modestly last week, with widening evident across both the investment-grade and high-yield sectors. Investment-grade spreads moved 1 basis point wider to +117, while high-yield spreads expanded 2 basis points to +331. Credit quality improved on the margin, as the major rating agencies issued 41 upgrades against 38 downgrades. The industrial sector recorded the highest number of upgrades, whereas the financial sector saw the most downgrades. In the municipal market, tax-exempt yields followed Treasuries higher, albeit at a slower pace, increasing 1-2 basis points across the curve.⁸

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Return for Selected Indices⁹

Sources:

1. Bloomberg: As of April 25, 2026 ↩︎
2. Bloomberg: As of April 27, 2026 ↩︎
3. Bloomberg: As of April 27, 2026 ↩︎
4. Morgan Stanley Research: As of April 21, 2026 ↩︎
5. PWR Investor Day: As of March 31, 2026 ↩︎
6. Marvell Technology Earnings Call: As of March 5, 2026 ↩︎
7. Bloomberg: As of April 27, 2026 ↩︎
8. Bloomberg: As of April 27, 2026 ↩︎
9. Bloomberg. As of April 27, 2026 ↩︎

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